Khmer Politics Soap Opera

Those of us who are keen observers of the great Asian soap-opera that is Khmer politics have had an interesting month or so to say the least.
A chain reaction of events, some moving so swiftly and fluidly that it was almost difficult to keep up with them.
Specific events to include would be :
• Sam Rainsy returns to Phnom Penh and says ‘oh so sorry’ to the Iron Man.

• The Sam Rainsy Party then tables a motion that election rules should be changed to 50% plus one; rather than the existing two-thirds threshold required to establish a ruling party – which in real terms is now just 62 seats out of the 123 in parliament. Under the old rules, the Iron Man’s 73 seats from the 2003 general election was not enough to rule without forming a coalition government to bring him up to the requisite 82 seats

• The Iron Man then had a period of making public attacks and comments on nameless politicians and nameless mistresses of politicians (plus power-broking and political favour) - now, you just know that a whole bunch of Khmer politicians from all parties went home after those speeches to get the third degree from their wives!

• Parliamentary Immunity is restored to Sam Rainsy

• The new 50% plus one rule is passed into effect in record time.

• Senior FUNCINPEC co-Ministers of the Interior and of Defence are fired by the Iron Man, although interestingly enough retain their roles as Deputy Prime Ministers.

• Prince Ranariddh resigns as Chairman of the National Assembly.
Of course, the back drop to all of the above events was the 2006 meeting of the Consultative Group, who in the last few days has pledged US$601 Million in direct aid to Cambodia for 2006; up US$97 Million from 2005’s US$504 Million.

Elsewhere, in a distant despot background, the King Father Sihanouk claims he is homesick for Cambodia, but afraid to return to his homeland for fear of ‘something bad’ happening to him or his Country, in his words “ Currently, if I dare return back to our country, there will be bad problems [for me] that will force me to leave our country again.”
* * *

So what does all this mean?

To my mind, it means that there is now every chance that the 2008 elections will result in the CPP party having a full control of the government without any form of coalition being necessary.
Or, in the unlikely event that they only just fall short of the 62 seats needed, they are no longer restricted to just forming a coalition with FUNCINPEC, it is possible that the Sam Rainsy party might pick up enough votes to be used to form a quorum with CPP – thus allowing the Iron Man to play the Sam Rainsy Party off against FUNCINPEC.

Although it is more likely that the CPP will win an outright majority under the new system.
With Prince Ranariddh out of the Chair at the National Assembly, FUNCINPEC loses some of its current political power in the short term, however, if he is going to devote all of his time now to strengthening FUNCINPEC prior to the 2008 elections – as some news reports have quoted him as saying – then there is a good chance that he might regain some of the former strong following that FUNCINPEC enjoyed back in the early 1990’s.

Exciting times as I said, and the general election is still over a year away.

P.S.
The political house spring-cleaning continues today;

Ranariddh loses his co-chairmanship of the Council for the Development of Cambodia, Sao Rany, the FUNCINPEC deputy police commissioner is out of a job and all is quiet today at the National Assembly – hardly a person here.